Asian And American Forex Update

Growing optimism seen from Fed Chairman Bernanke in early US session and subsequent after-hours strong draw from the US TALF program have been once again overshadowed in Asian hours by ominous uncertainty over the impending stress-test results for US financials. Whereas in the prior session it was the press speculation that as many as 10 banks may require additional capital, this time the scrutiny is being limited to Bank of America alone. However, the sheer size of the forecasted $34B capital raise request is translating into a more magnified bout of risk aversion across equity, currency, and bond markets than one seen yesterday. The prevalence of the Bank of America speculation calling for a raise of 50% of its market cap is also weighing heavier on sentiment, with the story appearing in NY Times and WSJ after the initial rumor surfaced on the wires around 9:30pmET. Asian bourses and US index futures reversed initial gains, trading around the session's worst level going into the final hour of the day. S&P/ASX was up 0.4% pre-BAC report but last seen off by 0.7% while Korea's Kospi was lower by 0.9% after a near 1% initial rally. Nikkei225 remains close for the final day of golden week. Taiwan's Taiex remained relatively immune to US financials worries, remaining at the forefront of regional gainers in recent sessions with another 2.7% rise to gain 16% in the last 4 sessions. In US equities, front-month S&P futures point to a lower open with a 1.2% session decline.

- Although market sentiment was simultaneously clouded by the Bank of America rumors, there were some notable rays of sunshine from two rounds of Aussie economic data. March retail sales saw their biggest rise in three months and their second-best increase in years with a 2.2% gain v 0.5% expected and -2.0% prior. Likewise, Australia March trade surplus was also second only to October in at least 3 years, coming in at A$2.45B V A$1.7BE. Surplus remained driven by contracting imports, but exports leveled off to unchanged. Most striking was Australia's export levels to its largest trading partner China rising by the highest margin of 23% in years to $4.35B, also the highest multi-month level. Australia's Finance Ministry and Treasury officials subsequently reflected on better than expected retail sales and trade data as evidence that the govt stimulus is working.

FX Solutions, LLC Forex Broker

FX Solutions, LLC
	24 hr commission-free trading in the majors and crosses, Global Trading System (G.T.S.) with free professional charting package, split-second trade execution from real time, streaming quotes; managed account program; partner services include introducing broker program, white label / co-brand program; back office services for money managers, etc.
BROKER INFO
Languages:	English, Espanol,
Minimum account:	500
Minimum trade:	10,000
Pip spread (most popular pairs):	3-5
Commissions:	No
Trading Software:	Global Trading System (GTS)
Regulated:	NFA (USA); CFTC (USA)
CONTACTS
Headquarters:	127 East Ridgewood Suite 201, Ridgewood, NJ 07450 USA
Phone number:	1 201 345 2201
Fax number:	1 201 345 2211
E-mail:	info@fxsol.com
Company URL:	www.fxsol.com

OANDA Forex Broker

OANDA is a leading market-maker for currency trading. OANDA FXTrade Platform comes from 15+ years of foreign exchange market research and analysis. Highlights of FXTrade: Transactions as small as $1 US - no minimum trade size! Continuous interest payment Multi-currency accounts: supporting 7 currencies, including: US dollar, Euro, Swiss Franc. No minimum deposit Tight spreads as low as 2 to 3 pips on all transaction sizes 24 hour trading and customer service Free technical analysis & charts
BROKER INFO
Minimum trade:	NO limits on trade size: FXTrade is unique in its ability to support trades in much smaller quantities than most other platforms. In fact, it allows you to trade as little as $1.00!
Pip spread (most popular pairs):	2-3
Commissions:	No
Trading Software:	OANDA FXTrade Platform
Regulated:	NFA (USA); CFTC (USA)
CONTACTS
Headquarters:	New York City
Phone number:	+1 416 593 9436 24 hour live customer service from Sunday 4 pm EST to Friday 4 pm EST
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CFOS/FX American Forex Brokers

CFOS/FX All of the professional brokers at CFOS/FX are licensed by the National Futures Association and are qualified to provide you with the following services: forex broker, forex options broker, commodity futures broker, commodity options on futures broker and forex and futures consulting. CFOS/FX provides both online and telephone brokerage services to clients, and customer satisfaction is our top priority.

Forex Risk management Strategies

Forex risk management strategiesThe Forex market behaves differently from other markets! The speed, volatility, and enormous size of the Forex market are unlike anything else in the financial world. Beware: the Forex market is uncontrollable - no single event, individual, or factor rules it. Enjoy trading in the perfect market! Just like any other speculative business, increased risk entails chances for a higher profit/loss.
Currency markets are highly speculative and volatile in nature. Any currency can become very expensive or very cheap in relation to any or all other currencies in a matter of days, hours, or sometimes, in minutes. This unpredictable nature of the currencies is what attracts an investor to trade and invest in the currency market.
But ask yourself, "How much am I ready to lose?" When you terminated, closed or exited your position, did you understand the risks and taken steps to avoid them? Let's look at some foreign exchange risk management issues that may come up in your day-to-day foreign exchange transactions.
Unexpected corrections in currency exchange rates
Wild variations in foreign exchange rates
Volatile markets offering profit opportunities
Lost payments
Delayed confirmation of payments and receivables
Divergence between bank drafts received and the contract price
These are areas that every trader should cover both BEFORE and DURING a trade.
Exit the Forex market at profit targets Take profit take orders, allow Forex traders to exit the Forex market at pre-determined profit targets. If you are short (sold) a currency pair, the system will only allow you to place a limit order below the current market price because this is the profit zone. Similarly, if you are long (bought) the currency pair, the system will only allow you to place a take profit order above the current market price. Take profit orders help create a disciplined trading methodology and make it possible for traders to walk away from the computer without continuously monitoring the market.
Control risk by capping losses Stop/loss orders allow traders to set an exit point for a losing trade. If you are short a currency pair, the stop/loss order should be placed above the current market price. If you are long the currency pair, the stop/loss order should be placed below the current market price. Stop/loss orders help traders control risk by capping losses. Stop/loss orders are counter-intuitive because you do not want them to be hit; however, you will be happy that you placed them! When logic dictates, you can control greed.
Where should I place my stop and take profit orders? As a general rule of thumb, traders should set stop/loss orders closer to the opening price than take profit orders. If this rule is followed, a trader needs to be right less than 50% of the time to be profitable. For example, a trader that uses a 30 pip stop/loss and 100-pip take profit orders, needs only to be right 1/3 of the time to make a profit. Where the trader places the stop and take profit will depend on how risk-adverse he is. Stop/loss orders should not be so tight that normal market volatility triggers the order. Similarly, take profit orders should reflect a realistic expectation of gains based on the market's trading activity and the length of time one wants to hold the position. In initially setting up and establishing the trade, the trader should look to change the stop loss and set it at a rate in the 'middle ground' where they are not overexposed to the trade, and at the same time, not too close to the market.
Trading foreign currencies is a demanding and potentially profitable opportunity for trained and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should soberly reflect on the desired result of your investment and your level of experience. Warning! Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
So, there is significant risk in any foreign exchange deal. Any transaction involving currencies involves risks including, but not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions, that may substantially affect the price or liquidity of a currency.
Moreover, the leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of your initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin call within the time prescribed, your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses. 'Stop-loss' or 'limit' order strategies may lower an investor's exposure to risk.
Easy-Forex foreign exchange technology links around-the-clock to the world's foreign currency exchange trading floors to get the lowest foreign currency rates and to take every opportunity to make or settle a transaction.
Avoiding/lowering risk when trading Forex:Trade like a technical analyst. Understanding the fundamentals behind an investment also requires understanding the technical analysis method. When your fundamental and technical signals point to the same direction, you have a good chance to have a successful trade, especially with good money management skills. Use simple support and resistance technical analysis, Fibonacci Retracement and reversal days. Be disciplined. Create a position and understand your reasons for having that position, and establish stop loss and profit taking levels. Discipline includes hitting your stops and not following the temptation to stay with a losing position that has gone through your stop/loss level. When you buy, buy high. When you sell, sell higher. Similarly, when you sell, sell low. When you buy, buy lower. Rule of thumb: In a bull market, be long or neutral - in a bear market, be short or neutral. If you forget this rule and trade against the trend, you will usually cause yourself to suffer psychological worries, and frequently, losses. And never add to a losing position. On Easy-Forex the trader can change their trade orders as many times as they wish free of charge, either as a stop loss or as a take profit. The trader can also close the trade manually without a stop loss or profit take order being hit. Many successful traders set their stop loss price beyond the rate at which they made the trade so that the worst that can happen is that they get stopped out and make a profit

Forex Forecasting

Forex-ForecastingThis article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly, but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results.
Technical analysis Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.
Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:
1. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.
2. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.
3. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.
Forex charts are based on market action involving price. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory:
Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers)
Waves (Elliott wave theory)
Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
Trends (following moving average). Some major technical analysis tools are described below:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100. If the RSI is 70 or greater, then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which prices have risen more than market expectations). An RSI of 30 or less is taken as a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have fallen more than the market expectations).
Stochastic oscillator: This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%. The indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend, period closing prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range. Conversely, as prices fall in a strong down trend, closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low of the period range. Stochastic calculations produce two lines, %K and %D that are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. Divergence between the stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful trading signal.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines. The MACD line is the difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line, which is an exponential moving average of the difference. If the MACD and trigger lines cross, then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely.
Number theory: Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any number to the next larger number is 62%, which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. The inverse of 62%, which is 38%, is also used as a Fibonacci retracement number.
Gann numbers: W.D. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly made over million in the markets. He made his fortune using methods that he developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement and time, known as time/price equivalents. There is no easy explanation for Gann's methods, but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. He also used lines in charts to predict support and resistance areas.
Waves Elliott wave theory: The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence. An ideal Elliott wave patterns shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline.
Gaps Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. An up gap is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of the previous day. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower than the lowest price of the prior day. An up gap is usually a sign of market strength, while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. A breakaway gap is a price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern. It usually signals the beginning of an important price move. A runaway gap is a price gap that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. For that reason, it is also called a measuring gap. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending.
Trends A trend refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend; falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range.
Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy, particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend.
The most common technical tools:
Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear market lows.
DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) is a popular technical indicator used to determine whether or not a currency pair is trending.
Unlike the fundamental analyst, the technical analyst is not much concerned with any of the "bigger picture" factors affecting the market, but concentrates on the activity of that instrument's market.
Fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. In practice, many market players use technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their trading strategy. Fundamental analysis focuses on what ought to happen in a market. Factors involved in price analysis: Supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and government policy.
Fundamental analysis is a macro or strategic assessment of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the movement of the currency's price itself. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents, monetary policy, and other "fundamental" elements.
Many profitable trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements.

History Of Forex Trade

The History of the Forex MarketAn overview into the historical evolution of the foreign exchange market
This article will follow the historical roots of the international currency trading from the days of the gold exchange, through the Bretton Woods Agreement, to its current setting.
The Gold exchange period and the Bretton Woods Agreement.
Prior to Bretton Woods, the gold exchange standard -- paramount between 1876 and World War I -- ruled over the international economic system. Under the gold exchange, currencies experienced a new era of stability because they were supported by the price of gold.
However, the gold exchange standard had a weakness of boom-bust patterns. As a country's economy strengthened, its imports would increase until the country ran down its gold reserves, which were required to support its currency. As a result, the money supply would diminish, interest rates escalate and economic activity slowed to the point of recession. Ultimately, prices of commodities would hit bottom, appearing attractive to other nations, who would rush in and amid a buying frenzy inject the economy with gold until it increased its money supply, driving down interest rates and restoring wealth into the economy. Such boom-bust patterns abounded throughout the gold standard until World War I temporarily discontinued trade flows and the free movement of gold.
The Bretton Woods Agreement, established in 1944, fixed national currencies against the dollar, and set the dollar at a rate of USD 35 per ounce of gold. The agreement was aimed at establishing international monetary steadiness by preventing money from taking flight across countries, and to curb speculation in the international currency market. Participating countries agreed to try to maintain the value of their currency within a narrow margin against the dollar and an equivalent rate of gold as needed. As a result, the dollar gained a premium position as a reference currency, reflecting the shift in global economic dominance from Europe to the USA. Countries were prohibited from devaluing their currency to benefit their foreign trade and were only allowed to devalue their currency by less than 10%. The great volume of international Forex trade led to massive movements of capital, which were generated by post-war construction during the 1950s, and this movement destabilized the foreign exchange rates established in Bretton Woods.
The year 1971 heralded the abandonment of the Bretton Woods in that the US dollar would no longer be exchangeable into gold. By 1973, the forces of supply and demand controlled major industrialized nations' currencies, which now floated more freely across nations. Prices were floated daily, with volumes, speed and price volatility all increasing throughout the 1970s, and new financial instruments, market deregulation and trade liberalization emerged.
The onset of computers and technology in the 1980s accelerated the pace of extending the market continuum for cross-border capital movements through Asian, European and American time zones. Transactions in foreign exchange increased intensively from nearly billion a day in the 1980s, to more than $1.9 trillion a day two decades later.

Forex Exchange Rates

Exchange ratesBecause currencies are traded in pairs and exchanged one against the other when traded, the rate at which they are exchanged is called the exchange rate. The majority of the currencies are traded against the US dollar (USD). The four next-most traded currencies are the Euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound sterling (GBP) and the Swiss franc (CHF). These five currencies make up the majority of the market and are called the major currencies or "the Majors". Some sources also include the Australian dollar (AUD) within the group of major currencies.
The first currency in the exchange pair is referred to as the base currency and the second currency as the counter term or quote currency. The counter term or quote currency is thus the numerator in the ratio, and the base currency is the denominator. The value of the base currency (denominator) is always 1. Therefore, the exchange rate tells a buyer how much of the counter term or quote currency must be paid to obtain one unit of the base currency. The exchange rate also tells a seller how much is received in the counter term or quote currency when selling one unit of the base currency. For example, an exchange rate for EUR/USD of 1.2083 specifies to the buyer of euros that 1.2083 USD must be paid to obtain 1 euro.
At any given point, time and place, if an investor buys any currency and immediately sells it - and no change in the exchange rate has occurred - the investor will lose money. The reason for this is that the bid price, which represents how much will be received in the counter or quote currency when selling one unit of the base currency, is always lower than the ask price, which represents how much must be paid in the counter or quote currency when buying one unit of the base currency. For instance, the EUR/USD bid/ask currency rates at your bank may be 1.2015/1.3015, representing a spread of 1000 pips (also called points, one pip = 0.0001), which is very high in comparison to the bid/ask currency rates that online Forex investors commonly encounter, such as 1.2015/1.2020, with a spread of 5 pips. In general, smaller spreads are better for Forex investors since even they require a smaller movement in exchange rates in order to profit from a trade.
MarginBanks and/or online trading providers need collateral to ensure that the investor can pay in case of a loss. The collateral is called the margin and is also known as minimum security in Forex markets. In practice, it is a deposit to the trader's account that is intended to cover any currency trading losses in the future.
Margin enables private investors to trade in markets that have high minimum units of trading by allowing traders to hold a much larger position than their account value. Margin trading also enhances the rate of profit, but can also enhance the rate of loss if the investor makes the wrong decision.
Leveraged financingLeveraged financing, i.e., the use of credit, such as a trade purchased on a margin, is very common in Forex. The loan/leveraged in the margined account is collateralized by your initial deposit. This may result in being able to control USD 100,000 for as little as USD 1,000.
There are three ways private investors can trade in Forex directly or indirectly:
The spot market
Forwards and futures
Options
A spot transaction A spot transaction is a straightforward exchange of one currency for another. The spot rate is the current market price, also called the benchmark price. Spot transactions do not require immediate settlement, or payment "on the spot." The settlement date, or "value date," is the second business day after the "deal date" (or "trade date") on which the transaction is agreed to by the two traders. The two-day period provides time to confirm the agreement and arrange the clearing and necessary debiting and crediting of bank accounts in various international locations.
Forwards and FuturesForwards make up about 46% of currency trading. A forward transaction is an agreement between two parties whereby one party buys a currency at a particular price by a certain date that is greater than two business days (a spot transaction).
A future contract is a forward contract with fixed currency amounts and maturity dates. They are traded on future exchanges and not through the interbank foreign exchange market.
OptionsA currency option is similar to a futures contract in that it involves a fixed currency transaction at some future date in time. However the buyer of the option is only purchasing the right but not the obligation to purchase a fixed amount of currency at a fixed price by a certain date in future. The price is known as the premium and is lost if the buyer does not exercise the option.
RisksAlthough Forex trading can lead to very profitable results, there are risks involved: exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, credit risks, and country risks. Approximately 80% of all currency transactions last a period of seven days or less, while more than 40% last fewer than two days. Given the extremely short lifespan of the typical trade, technical indicators heavily influence entry, exit and order placement decisions.

What Is Forex Trading

An overview of the Forex market
The Forex market is a non-stop cash market where currencies of nations are traded, typically via brokers. Foreign currencies are constantly and simultaneously bought and sold across local and global markets and traders' investments increase or decrease in value based upon currency movements. Foreign exchange market conditions can change at any time in response to real-time events.
The main enticements of currency dealing to private investors and attractions for short-term Forex trading are:
24-hour trading, 5 days a week with non-stop access to global Forex dealers.
An enormous liquid market making it easy to trade most currencies.
Volatile markets offering profit opportunities.
Standard instruments for controlling risk exposure.
The ability to profit in rising or falling markets.
Leveraged trading with low margin requirements.
Many options for zero commission trading.
Forex trading
The investor's goal in Forex trading is to profit from foreign currency movements. Forex trading or currency trading is always done in currency pairs. For example, the exchange rate of EUR/USD on Aug 26th, 2003 was 1.0857. This number is also referred to as a "Forex rate" or just "rate" for short. If the investor had bought 1000 euros on that date, he would have paid 1085.70 U.S. dollars. One year later, the Forex rate was 1.2083, which means that the value of the euro (the numerator of the EUR/USD ratio) increased in relation to the U.S. dollar. The investor could now sell the 1000 euros in order to receive 1208.30 dollars. Therefore, the investor would have USD 122.60 more than what he had started one year earlier. However, to know if the investor made a good investment, one needs to compare this investment option to alternative investments. At the very minimum, the return on investment (ROI) should be compared to the return on a "risk-free" investment. One example of a risk-free investment is long-term U.S. government bonds since there is practically no chance for a default, i.e. the U.S. government going bankrupt or being unable or unwilling to pay its debt obligation.
When trading currencies, trade only when you expect the currency you are buying to increase in value relative to the currency you are selling. If the currency you are buying does increase in value, you must sell back the other currency in order to lock in a profit. An open trade (also called an open position) is a trade in which a trader has bought or sold a particular currency pair and has not yet sold or bought back the equivalent amount to close the position.
However, it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency.